top of page
Search

WHAT FOLLOWS THE WORST 4 MONTH PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST 50 YEARS?

jeffreymarcus3
May 2, 20232 min read

The S&P500 fell 13.31% in the first 4 months of 2022. That is the largest drop for the first 4 months of a year in the past 50 years.

The table below shows 8 years in which the S&P500 fell 5% or more from January 1 to April 30. The table also shows the performance that followed these years of bad early month performance. The diagnosis is not great for the market following this early poor performance:

· The average 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12-month performance for all years following the first 4 months is 0.70%, 1.27%, 1.98%, 1.99%, and 9.47%, respectively.

· The average 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12-month performance following the first 4 months for negative years is worse: 0.79%, 0.08%, 0.47%, -1.18%, and 6.88%, respectively. Each period’s performance is worse when the first 4-month performance is less than 0%.

· When the first 4 months have declined 5% or more, the average 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12-month performance is even worse (except for the 1-month bounce back): 1.24%, -0.82%, -2.68%, -11.89%, and -1.94%, respectively.


(The table at the bottom of this report details the performance for all years from 1973 to 2022.)


So, is it time to throw in the towel and step to the sidelines? Maybe, but on closer examination maybe not. TPA is not an economist, but the table at the bottom of the report shows brief reasons for the worst first 4-month performance. 2001 and 2002 were declines based on the aftermath of the bursting TECH bubble. The drop in 2008 was due to the Financial recession caused by the housing bubble brought on by mortgage back excesses and weak lending standards. TPA would argue that neither of these conditions exists today.


The conditions in 1974, 1977, and 1990 may be closer parallels today as they concerned inflation and oil shocks and subsequent FED actions. TPA would argue that the ultimate question is whether the current situation is really the result of general economic conditions or the exogenous events of Russia/Ukraine and Covid. Is inflation the result of an overheated economy out of control or shortages and logistical issues caused by the lingering problems of Covid and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? It is a worthwhile question to ask since the performance after the first shocks of Covid was better than the overall average for all 50 years: 1-month 4.53%, 2-month 6.45%, 3-month 12.32%, 6-month 12.28%, and 12-month 43.56%.



 
 
 

留言

Turning Point Analytics Disclaimer

​

Turning Point Analytics (TPA) is only one of many tools that an investor should use to make a final investment decision.  TPA is an overlay on top of a client’s good fundamental or macro analysis.  TPA does not create or provide fundamental analysis. The information in this communication may include technical analysis.  Technical analysis is a discipline that studies the past trading history of a security while trying to forecast future price action.  Technical analysis does not consider the underlying fundamentals of the security in question and it does not provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base an investment decision.  Investors should not rely on technical analysis alone while making an investment decision.  Before making an investment decision, investors should consider reviewing all publicly available information regarding the security in question, including, but not limited to, the underlying fundamentals of the security and other information which is available in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.  The information and analysis contained in reports provided by TPA are copyrighted and may not be duplicated or redistributed for any reason without the express written consent of TPA. The information in this communication is for institutional or sophisticated investors only.  By accepting this communication, the recipient agrees not to forward, and/or copy the information to any other person, except as permitted, or required by law. TPA does not guarantee accuracy or completeness. TPA is a publisher of technical research and has no investment banking or advisory relationship with any company mentioned in any report.  Reports are neither a solicitation to buy nor an offer to sell securities. Past performance is in no way indicative of future results. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.  TPA will provide, upon request, the details of any past recommendations. TPA’s analysis and recommendations should not be used as the sole reason to buy or sell any security. TPA may compensate brokers and intermediaries for sales and marketing services. You understand and acknowledge that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities and/or currencies. The Company, the authors, the publisher, and all affiliates of Company assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Statements, data, and analysis made by TPA or in its publications, are made as of the date stated and are subject to change without notice. TPA and/or its officers and employees may, from time to time acquire, hold, or sell a position in the securities mentioned herein. Upon request, TPA will furnish specific information in this regard. TPA will not be held liable for losses caused by conditions and/or events that are beyond TPA’s control including, but not limited to war, strikes, natural disasters, new government restrictions, market fluctuations, and communications disruptions.

bottom of page